From Left: Prof Mahbubani and Prof Quah at the NUS Giving Experience event “Is the World Coming Together or Falling Apart?”

“The world has shrunk,” asserted Professor Kishore Mahbubani (Arts and Social Sciences ’71), a Distinguished Fellow at the NUS Asia Research Institute. “The 193 countries of the world are no longer 193 separate boats with a captain or crew on each boat. These countries have become 193 separate cabins on the same boat.”

With vivid imagery, the renowned academic, diplomat and author described our interdependent world in dire need of global governance at the NUS Giving Experience event titled: ‘Is the world coming together or falling apart?’ on 25 April 2024 held at One Farrer Hotel.

Over the luncheon with an audience of 85 NUS Giving donors and friends, Prof Mahbubani and moderator Professor Danny Quah, Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics and Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, sparred on their views on who should be ‘the captain of the boat’.

Will there be a world leader that can steer the boat towards peace, safety and prosperity amidst our turbulent world hammered by wars, economic crisis, pandemics and climate change?

Prof Mahbubani sharing his views candidly on geopolitical affairs.

 Three Critical Pillars of Our World Order 

Prof Mahbubani approached the topic with a bold analysis of the three strongest economies in the world: the United States, Europe and China.

He described the United States as a nation where chaos breeds innovation. In the heat of intense competition, the country produces world-beating companies, entrepreneurs, innovative thinkers and practitioners.

Yet, it is crippled by structural problems. He shared that America’s bottom 50 percent of its society have experienced little progress in the past 30 years. “It is the only modern developed society, which is seeing its life expectancy go down,” he elaborated.  

While, Europe is prosperous and well-ordered, Prof Mahbubani believes that its welfare states are growing ‘untenable’. Besides the Russo-Ukrainian war that Europe is grappling with, he also warned of a potential migration crisis that might result from the demographic explosion in underdeveloped Africa.

While Prof Mahbubani described ‘deep structural challenges’ in the United States and Europe, he shared that China currently faces ‘short-term cyclical problems’ such as the property bubble. However, he believes that China, with its strong governance, is on a trajectory of formidable economic growth.

“In 1990, when they (The Economist and Financial Times) said that the China growth story was over, China’s Gross National Product (GNP) was US$360 billion. In the year 2023, when once again, the Financial Times said that the China growth story is over, China’s economy has grown to US$18 trillion. An increase of 50 times over 30 years,” he laughed.

China is now facing ‘the largest geopolitical contest’ with the United States but Prof Mahbubani believes that China still has a long way to become the provider of global governance.

Under that backdrop, Prof Mahbubani is not optimistic that any of the three strongest nations will take the helm of the boat.

Successful Small States and Institutions: Can they provide global governance?

Prof Quah invited Prof Mahbubani to entertain the idea of modelling the world around the top nine richest countries in the world measured by wealth per capita income. He pointed out that eight of these countries are successful small states such as Singapore and Luxembourg.

“The things that we need the world to come together for lies in the space of ideas and institutions. They don’t lie in the space of nuclear weapons or the size of the military,” said Prof Quah.  

However, Prof Mahbubani believes that ‘international relations are always driven by the great powers, and small states will always be price takers, rather than price makers in the global system’.

“And even when economic common sense dictates to you that you do something, geopolitics will make you do the wrong thing,” Prof Mahbubani added.  

“Therefore, sadly, I predict that things will get difficult over the next 10 years… and I guarantee, you’ll experience turbulence. At least you’ll know why it’s happening,” Prof Mahbubani concluded.